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Follow up $VALE DD and addressing concerns
MESSAGE FOR MODS**:** I got approval via modmail to post on a friends account because my main account is suspended on reddit for 3 days because I said “f*ggot” in a private message...submitted by randallweinsteingi to wallstreetbets
Even though we all know some of the most profane language lives in wallstreetbets
To be clear, the initial post was in no way promising a Tesla x Vale collab on battery day. The purpose of the post was to gather information and speculation about a potential EXPLOSIVE DREAM SHAKER options play.
First I would like to address the naysayers and conspiracies that have arised in the wake of a frustrating quad witching/bloody/currency fluctuating trading day.
For full transparency, the DD post was written by me, however three of my trading friends kept sending me links and DD that they were finding. So while there is some truth to your statement, it is nowhere near as sinister as imagined.
I have no idea why people dump money on awards. Personally I think it is gay and I would rather put that money in a VALE yolo. When the post initially went live, all was well and it was on it’s way to being #1. People were praising me as “DD god” and the comments piling in. About 6 hours after the post went live, it started to get “lost” behind other satire posts and low quality content. I was confused as to why because the post seemed like it was getting a lot of traction and appreciation. (97% upvote ratio) My theory is that somehow it was being pushed down. I have no evidence for this claim but this could explain the crazy award to like ratio.
“Boofin on Vyvanse”
Can confirm this is accurate. The smoke on the west coast makes going outside very uncomfortable (coming from someone who doesn’t like huddling indoors) I decided to start writing the DD at 1am. Wrote an outline. Woke up for the market open, spent 16 hours writing it and not trading. Read over it and then decided to post the next day.
u/nanaboostme has been my biggest follower since I posted the $VALE DD. He/She believes that I am the “elaborate RKT post”.
Video of me doing a flip in the rain
“Unprofitable Theta Gang Ploy”
Since the inception of the VALE DD post, the day of, NO new contracts in the 9/25 chain have been opened. O/I stayed at 2863 and volume was some outrageous 30,000-40,000. Selling theta on those would have granted you a whopping 0.0083% return before option fees. My portfolio also shows I have no short calls.
I am aware that there are legitimate pump and dump schemes that pass through wallstreetbets quarterly. I usually do not buy into DD posts. It's not my style. It can work very well though as seen with VALE on 9/17/2020. In fact I was the one who called Tanker gangs bluff, they had run too hard into ER and it was so predictable The post has since been deleted but I commented my take on it and got downvoted to earth's core.
“When they send pumpers, they’re not sending their best, folks”
u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY warns “be careful who you take “advice” from”. My post is educational and entertaining. No where in the post did I rush readers to BUY IN QUICK or to ACT FAST. I even had a disclaimer at the bottom:
“ disclaimer: none of this is financial advice, this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. nothing in this post should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment.”
Why did u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY post this?
The night of 9/17/20, I wanted to create humor around the culture of $VALE GANG, so I made a video post titled “$VALE GANG TRAILER”. This was shadowbanned from the subreddit and was only viewable if you had a direct link. :/
I end up deleting the post and telling my friend to post it. Everyone is loving it, tons of feedback, medals, upvotes. WSB comradery was at an all time high.
Then suddenly we notice the post is not available on the Top, Hot, sort by new. Nowhere to be found. A couple minutes later it was outright deleted. I message a couple mods, no response. My friend who posted $VALE GANG TRAILER got banned from wallstreetbets.
Quote a fallen soldier
"On the pinned “advice” post, Mods heavily implied with only omission of name that Vale was a pump and dump and attacked my credibility and motives, when pressed in the comments they backtracked. Saying that my post was well made and they had no issues with it, however this is not true. I was shadow banned for my post and refused explanation from mods at all."From this youtube video
Then u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY posts his pinned post about being wary with “advice”. I get to respond once in the comments. A couple minutes later u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY responds and locks the post. This was the start of the chaos.
Also, the VALE DD post was buried as well, bad algo? Or jealous mods? Only assuming because the conversation was cut short.
Video not on hot(videos were being (fucky) Video not on day top
“He’s a Fraud!”
After u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY’s post went live, I was bombarded with naysayers and angry individuals. No, I am not selling you those dirt cheap contracts. No, I am not working for Goldman Sachs. No, I am not using WSB to bring volume into an options chain. One of my main reasons for entry in $VALE was the unusual activity coming from whales.
The 1/15/21 chain was especially flooded with whale volume. I will explain the updated whale activity down below in the DD. I am still holding my positions and do not need WSB to pump my contracts. I’m relying on a price action movement to bring intrinsic value into my contract. I’M NOT FUCKING SELLING!
Shifting burden of persuasion
When I am accused of shilling/pumping/being an outsidepumping/baiting/selling contracts to buyers, the need for evidence or fact is absent. There is no evidence that indicates I was intentionally posting the DD with sinister motives. However, now that I am on my heels with no factual claims being made, I have to rewrite the constitution to prove my innocence. If a Mod wants to remove/shadowban, ideally they must have some evidence in order to do so. Otherwise their range of power is larger than acceptable. They could ban or not ban anything without justification or evidence. If abused this is a very dangerous system of management. The Mods shift the burden of persuasion on the author who is banned from the subreddit and has no platform to preach. Technically what I am doing is against WSB rules. Posting on an alt account if your main is banned. I had to deliver though, too many eager eyes waiting for this follow up. To conclude, WSB ban policy needs to be reworked.
If my credibility is restored, continue to read the updated DD
What was missed in first post
A theory was floating around that the $5 billion in debt that VALE paid off, was funded by Tesla. The debt was disbursed in March 2020, during the covid crash. $2 billion was due by June 2022 and $3 billion was due December 2024. Tesla raised $5 billion capital through shares. Tesla said they intend to use the cash to “strengthen its balance sheet and for general corporate purposes”. That is a pretty broad statement. An analyst from Roth Capital partners said “They will need cash for all the facilities they are building, and new growth initiatives,”(Reuters)
The connection people were making, is that Tesla raised capital to give Vale. Both articles wet public within 24 hours of each other.
“VALE DRILLING :(”
Yes but no. After a shoot up in the morning, VALE fell for a couple of reasons
Close price on the brazilian exchange was 61.66/5.3876 =$11.44
This is why after hours, VALE was hanging around 11.44 but now the dip is being bought so it is back up to $11.59. What to take away: Vales down movement today was closer to -0.69%. The rest was currency fluctuation. A little unfortunate but that’s what we get for playing a brazilian rock farm.What were the whales doing?
Today from market open until 9:55, ALL the FlowAlgo was bullish
The whales were also buying into the 10/16 call contracts HARD. I’m cautiously optimistic. While the Najarian brothers live by following the Smart Money, it seems like it could be a lure.
Whales probably know we love VALE and they saw the 10/16 chain was empty, so they got in and are going to price fix it now, like how you would price fix the market in FIFA Ultimate Team.
10/16 also does not cover any earnings or special dates, just random.
Today was another high volume day for shares and options.
While the general sentiment among the options chain is bullish, there was an increase in p/c ratio for O/I
What this means is that the majority of trading was bullish today. Roughly 1 put was traded for every 11 calls. However, the open interest is now showing Roughly 1.17 puts exist for every 1 call. Whether these are “sell to open” puts is another question. The general sentiment in the options chain is still bullish. P/C ratio can be very misleading, going into ERIC Q2, the P/C was 11. That means there were 11 puts for every 1 call. ERIC beat earnings and then gapped up.
My reaction to today’s movement was the following. A perfect day to scare retail traders away,
Friday nerves holding into the weekend combined with a currency fluctuation. Buy low, sell high.
I bought more positions today.
What’s keeping me bullish?
Everything from my initial DD post and some new information is keeping me bullish. VALE is not a meme stock. They are pretty well established and very large, just underlooked by retail. Whales continuing to pile in is keeping me bullish, along with the sneaky upgrades from Thursday and Friday.
GIGA metals is extremely bearish right now, CEO and Execs sold shares at the top and they have been getting beat down for three straight days.
Najarian is very outspoken about his VALE position on CNBC. 2 days in a row he mentioned it. He is both long stock and long calls.
VALE EV PRESENTATION 2018
A lot of good information on demand for nickel was in Vale’s presentation
The Nickel demand in 2018 was benchmarked at 38 in comparison to a 260/590 (conservative/upside) by 2025 and 890/1700 by 2030.
Nickel demand for batteries wass 3% of the market in 2017. It is projected to be 37% of the market in 2030.
Vale gives a disclaimer that the variance of range is 50% to the upside and 50% to the conservative side.
This growth alone is reason to long VALE.
Because I am banned, I cannot see the comments anymore. However, their were some interesting comments in the original VALE DD post. Those that I recall are
Ex Dividend date
Many expressed concern that the ex dividend date would be devastating for the 9/25 calls. This is true, but at the same time if the big news comes out on batteryday/ex date. The price action could plow through ex date. This is also why I have longer expiration calls.
In Tesla’s Q2 earnings call, they mentioned the word “nickel” that alone was enough to get the mining stocks to move up.
If nothing happens
If there is no mention of VALE or nickel on battery day, the stock will be hard to dump because VALE has 5 billion outstanding shares. Compared to LAC, who rallied 10% on Friday, the have 90 million outstanding shares.
“Speedrunning Factorio in real life …”
Factorio’s game description
I rest my case
VALE has potential for explosive movement on 9/22. If nothing happens on 9/22 there is still reason to long the stock and load up on longer expiration calls/leaps and continue to roll.
VALE shares, 9/25 $13.00c, 1/15/21 $12.00c, 3/19/21 $12.00c, 10/2 $11.50c
disclaimer: none of this is financial advice, this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. nothing in this post should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment.