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On the Implications of Megalaunch Capacity

Introduction

Before 2050 Musk is targeting 100 megatons/year (Mtn/yr) or 100K people per year launch capacity (Twitter thread). His basic setup is as such:
  • A fleet of 1,000 starships.
  • Each starship should be able to be flown 3x daily.
    • Around 1000 launches per starship each year.
  • Payload capacity:
    • 100 tonnes per launch
    • 100 people per launch

Some projected cost figures
  • Per launch with "robust operational cadence": $2M
  • "Fully burdened marginal cost": ~$10/kg.
(Source)

As SpaceX approaches 1,000 launches per Starship and 1,000 ships operational, both of the above values would likely fall due to: economies of scale, innovation and Wright's Law
My questions are:
  1. What businesses/economic activity does megatons/year capacity enable?
  2. What are the greatest challenges to achieving such a capacity?

Thoughts on #1

  • Cheap satellite communications.
    • Satellite based communication methods may gain superiority over ground based communication methods for e.g. internet services.
  • Autonomy afforded capabilities
    • Megalaunch capacity and low launch costs would enable placing far more probes into interplanetary space. This offers several benefits:
      • Multiple explorer probes could be sent to several celestial bodies in the solar system for much more detailed study said bodies.
      • If automation technology is sufficiently sophisticated, construction probes could be launched to celestial bodies to undertake preparatory activity ahead of human settlement.
      • > Construction of tunnels on Luna or Mars for example.
      • > Building human habitable settlements.
      • Autonomy would facilitate space mining.
  • Space transport
    • Suborbital transport for people and cargo would become economically viable.
      • $2M/launch and > 100 tonnes per launch translates to < $20/kg.
      • $2M/launch and 100 people per launch translates to $20K/person.
      • Marginal cost of an additional kg or person would fall as SpaceX scales to greater total launch capacity.
    • Safety and reliability issues would be ironed out in the capacity ramp up towards 1 million launches per year.
    • Regulatory issues would be sorted by necessity as the # of launches per year grows by several orders of magnitudes.
  • Space tourism
    • Tourism to orbit, Luna, Mars, Venus and maybe even the asteroid belt could become feasible.
  • Large scale space engineering
    • Megalaunch capacity enables the construction of relatively massive structures in earth orbit.
      • Solar reflectors could be placed in earth orbit for geoengineering purposes.
      • Skyhooks could be placed in earth orbit.
      • Much larger space telescopes could be placed in earth (or solar) orbit.
      • Much larger space stations could be placed in earth (or solar) orbit.
      • Much larger spacecraft could be constructed in orbit for interplanetary exploration.
  • Military purposes
    • Orbital bombardment becomes much more economical in terms of cost per ton of TNT for destruction.
    • Space transport capabilities could be adapted for superior logistics.
    • Spy/surveillance satellites would become much more attractive.
      • Satellites may replace aircraft for some purposes (taking down a satellite is much more difficult and (more fraught diplomatically) than a drone or other aircraft).
  • Space mining
    • Mining near earth (and other accessible) asteroids and the moon may become economically feasible.
      • As I understand it, some elements are very rare in the earth's crust and mainly found in meteorites or at impact craters.
      • The cost of transportation needs to be a small enough fraction of the cost of transportation for space mining to be economically viable.
  • Lunar settlement
    • Constructing larger (maybe even self sustaining) bases on the moon would become economically feasible.
    • Lunar settlement is a very attractive option for several reasons:
      • Short distance to Terra> 5 days or less for rockets enables robust supply lines.> 1.3 seconds for light enables manageable latency for near real time communication.
      • Rich mineral deposits affords local construction
      • Low gravity enables drastically cheaper launches to further out.
      • Limited surveillance from Terra governments.> This might enable freedom for political experimentation.
      • Scientific research
      • A safer environment to explore effects on humans of sustained low gravity
  • Martian settlement?
    • This is much more challenging than a lunar settlement, but it should become feasible eventually.
    • A martian settlement should be significantly farther out than a Lunar settlement.
    • Mars offers access to more resources than Luna
    • The relatively long distance between Earth and Mars offers different trade offs from a Lunar settlement
      • Several months for a rocket
      • > This would lead to a very different calculus for logistics and affords much less robust supply lines than the 5 days from Luna to Terra.
      • > The much greater distance between Martian settlements and Terra affords Martian settlements far greater independence than an equivalent lunar settlement.
      • 3 minutes for light leads to significant latency in communication.
      • > Synchronous communications (e.g. voice or video calls) would not be possible.
      • > All communication to terra would have to be asynchronous (e.g. email, SMS)
    • Musk's target is to place a million people on Mars to build a self sustaining city there.

My thoughts on #2

  • Kessler Syndrome
    • The most obvious market for greater launch capacity would be man made satellites. As the launch capacity is raised by several orders of magnitude, the # of satellites in low earth orbit may also be massively raised (SpaceX already plans to place 42K satellites into orbit for their Starlink constellation). Collisions between the satellites may trigger a chain reaction that may make space inaccessible forever.
      • Even if care is taken to avoid collision for the satellites, nefarious actors may attempt to launch junk into space to intentionally trigger the runaway reaction.
    • Caveats
      • Despite the much greater launch capacity, launch services would likely remain an oligopoly (high barriers to entry, incumbents benefit from economies of scale). If SpaceX can singlehandedly raise launch capacity by several orders of magnitude, economies of scale would offer them orders of magnitude cheaper launch costs. It may be the case that the _commercial_ launch market in particular is a monopoly. The threat model of nefarious actors intentionally triggering a Kessler Syndrome chain reaction is not that much a concern. There would indeed be a lot of rockets available, but those rockets would belong to only a few actors. Military technology export restrictions (e.g. ITAR) also limit the proliferation of rocket technology.
      • The few launch providers that exist would be subject so substantial regulation from nation states. As an American company, SpaceX would be subject to FCC regulations. Regulators could act to ensure that collision risk is acceptably low and that appropriate mitigation procedures are in place for when collisions do occur.> I'm not sure if this requires regulators to be significantly more competent than we can expect from them.
  • Regulatory hurdles
    • Scaling existing launch capacity by 1e4 to 1e6 times current capacity would invite intense scrutiny for regulators.
    • New regulatory framework may need to be put in place for commercial space transport to become viable.
      • Earth to earth trips need to not be mistaken as incoming missiles
      • Ultimately, we want a regulatory environment for space transport as developed as exists for air transport.

Conclusion

For the purposes of my question, it's not necessary that SpaceX reach the full 100 Mtn/yr capacity within the next 30 years, just that they get to Mtn/year capacity.
I think the transformation/disruption is much more pronounced when other actors take advantage of what SpaceX enables as opposed to SpaceX becoming their own customer (e.g. as exists via Starlink).
For example Musk may not be interested in full on settling the Moon, but I imagine there would be interest for more thorough Lunar development by third parties.
I'm curious what political freedom would be awarded to settlements on Luna or Mars. If some tech billionaires declared an autonomous settlement on Luna in 2055 (say with 100K people), how would they be treated by world governments?
submitted by DragonGod2718 to spacex

Asha Degree "update?" Take with a grain of salt, but thought some of you may be interested

Per request and thanks to u/ANewPerfume also u/boxybrown84 because I wasn't able to paste the text without it trying to include random nonsense. Thanks for being better at this than me fellow redditors!
For couples around the country, Valentine’s Day includes flowers, candy and expressions of love.
For one Fallston family, the day marks a painful anniversary - the day a 9-year-old girl vanished.
Local, state and federal investigators continue to try and solve the mystery of Asha Degree’s disappearance, and they may have a new lead.
A prison inmate recently sent a letter to The Star in which he says he knows what happened to the fourth-grader nearly 21 years ago.
Marcus Mellon wrote to the news outlet to say that the child was killed, and he knows how and where to find her.
Letter to the editor
Mellon, 53, was convicted of sex crimes against children in Cleveland County in 2014.
In his letter to The Star, Mellon says he has information and asked that it be passed along to the FBI.
Mellon asked investigators to come see him to find out what happened. Here is what he wrote:
Asha Degree has been missing for over 20 years. About four months ago I had found out her whereabouts and what had happen to her. She was killed and then took and buried. I do know how and what town she is in. I hope you get this letter and do come see me. It’s on the up and up.
Delayed visit
Cleveland County Sheriff Alan Norman said the tip will be followed up on, but an obstacle will slow the process.
Mellon is serving nearly 14 years in prison and is housed at Alexander Correctional Institute where there currently is a COVID-19 outbreak. Norman said that investigators from his department and the FBI will interview Mellon when the situation at the prison is under control.
Though the child vanished more than 20 years ago, tips still get reported. According to the FBI, 45 came in last year.
Whether or not Mellon actually has knowledge of what happened to Asha, Norman said all tips are investigated. The sheriff did note that sometimes inmates have ulterior motives such as bargaining for preferential treatment during incarceration.
“We treat every piece of information that we receive as good information until we prove otherwise,” Norman said.

Article from this morning, local paper
Per guidelines I am going to post a rundown I am sure you all know already:
Asha Jaquilla Degree went missing at the age of nine from Shelby, North Carolina, United States. In the early morning hours of February 14, 2000, for reasons unknown, she packed her bookbag, left her family home north of the city and began walking along nearby North Carolina Highway 18 despite heavy rain and wind. Several passing motorists saw her; when one turned around at a point 1.3 miles (2.1 km) from her home and began to approach her, she left the roadside and ran into a wooded area. In the morning, her parents discovered her absence. No one has seen her since.[2]
An intensive search that began that day led to the location of some of her personal effects near where she was last seen. A year and a half later, her bookbag, still packed, was unearthed from a construction site along Highway 18 north of Shelby in Morganton. At the point where she ran into the woods, a billboard now stands appealing for help finding her. Her family hosts an annual walk from their home to the billboard to draw attention to the case.
While the circumstances of Degree's disappearance at first seemed to suggest she was running away from home), investigators could not find a clear reason she might have done so; she was younger than most children who do. They have speculated that she might have been abducted instead. The case has drawn national media attention. In 2015, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) joined state and county authorities in a reopened investigation, offering a reward for information that could help solve the case.
submitted by ferretbeast to UnresolvedMysteries

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