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Mystery of Milan and why did Navalny and Khodorkovsy become "Crimea's ours" advocates. Long read by Ukrainian analysts.

Original article by Сергей Климовский. It's a long read, but has interesting ideas.
What do we know about the outcome of negotiations in Milan? From their participants - nothing. They did not even hold a regular press conference with streamlined statements that they have agreed to improve the situation. Conclusion - the talks were not just "difficult" as they were named by Klimkin (UA FM) but stiff, I imagine - an ultimatum. But one does not announce an ultimatum out of gentlemanly considerations.
In my opinion, the United States that were absent in Milan presented Putin an ultimatum: either he "corrected himself" or it will be very "painful". Ultimatum was presented through Merkel - Putin knows little English, but is fluent in German, and that's the reason why he was at the table with headphones - everyone spoke English. Putin promised to think about it. But he was not given the right to refuse - United States took the first step, imposing an obligation on Putin to accept an ultimatum: in the evening of October 17 the fall in oil prices stopped, and even grew up a couple of dollars. They demanded in return: a) release Savchenko and Sentsov; b) negotiate with Ukraine on the supply of gas on October 21. These are the first steps that Putin should do on the way to a global normalization and a return to the status-quo. The final step in their chain it for Putin to depart from power within a year. For example, due to the state of health, as Yeltsin did in December 31, 1999. Or else...
Putin knows what else. Therefore he demonstrates negotiability. On October 12 he declares the termination of "exercises" near the borders of Ukraine and the return of 17.5 thousand military to the barracks. NATO is watching this from space, does not see the withdrawal of the troops, and makes the remark to Putin. October 15, Putin signed a law on the financing of political parties from the state budget of Russia, with effect from 01.01.2015. On the same day in the Kremlin at a meeting of the Council for Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights under the President of the Russian Federation Putin says - "Kramatorsk - is Ukraine, and no Newrussia". To prepare for this phrase Putin is told that allegedly Kramatorsk officials denied its residents in pensions and child allowances, saying Kramatorsk is not Ukraine. The source of this kind of complaint to Putin is some unknown Elizabeth Glinkina from Ukraine. Fake that allows Putin to show he has no ill intentions for Ukraine.
On the same day, October 15, Secretary of State Kerry made a strange statement that there is a secret agreement between Poroshenko and Putin, in addition to the Minsk agreement. About what - Kerry did not say. I will not try to guess why and to whom this statement was addressed. On the same day, the day before the meeting in Milan "Ekho Moskvy" radio puts up an interview with Navalny (Russian opposition leader), sitting on house arrest, in which he declares that the Crimea can not be returned. It's kind of like "Gazprom-owned-Media" was opposed to this interview, but it appeared anyway. On October 16 Khodorkovsky makes similar entry in his blog, after which it gets to the media.
This was not expected from both of them. The first assession - Navalny and Khodorkovsky are preparing for the presidential elections, but they are only in 2018. Too early to flirt with "vatniki" and spoil their own image abroad and among their own supporters. Hence the conclusion Navalny got passed a message: in Milan Putin will receive a "claim" he will not be able to get away from. Act now.
Only people from Kremlin could give this information to Navalny, the project of one of the "towers" of which he is. Whether Khodorkovsky received it from the White House or Kremlin, or figured it out by himself, it does not matter. But both have received a signal - Putin is "getting removed". Unexpected "Crimea's ours" sentiment of both of them is purely mercantile - Crimea should not just be returned, but also reparations must be paid for its occupation, just as Germany was paying it to the USSR in 1953. Ukraine in June its size was estimated around 1 trillion UAH. As the presidential candidates Navalny and Khodorkovsky start bargaining not pay this reparation, even more so, they might receive the separate bill for the Donbass. They both do not want to pay the bills of Putin.
What kind of ultimatum was presented in Milan by the United States through Merkel - we do not know. But a little analysis and we get a response: total confiscation of assets and accounts of Russian companies and officials in the West with their villas, as well as total "exposure" of the agents and the Russian security services. Agents may not even be put in jail, but just sent home in only suits. Ant that is much worse than pass the time watching television in a comfortable Dutch prison. Longtime KGB plan on mastering the West from the inside, which took 20 years, fails. This is a "nuclear" hit, including in the professional pride of Putin. Strike without any rockets, any declaration of war and any armies crossing borders.
The first signs that the mechanism of the ultimatum is launched - a statement by Tim Osborne, a Yukos investors lawyer with the German magazine Der Spiegel, reprinted on October 20 by Deutsche Welle, demanding the confiscation of the property of the Russian Federation in the European Union and the United States to compensate for the loss of Yukos company. The next day, after Milan in the media there is information about the Russian submarine off the coast of Sweden, "spying" at the excercises of the Swedish and Dutch fleets. Swedish Foreign Minister is very careful in their comments until October 20. But the Swedish newspapers "come off" in full, receiving information from the military. They report: a nuclear submarine "Dmitry Donskoy", equipped with missile complex "Bulava" with hypersonic nuclear warheads (funny version, given the size of the submarine of this class it makes it impossible to use in the Baltic Sea - a comment of "Hvylya"). Kremlin denies this and suggests that it is not Russian but Dutch submarine.
After Milan Putin disappears for almost 3 days, like Stalin, after June 22, 1941. Russian President's website is not updated on October 18 and 19, and on Monday morning. Only by 1 pm a very short summary comes up: Putin confers with the Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova. Russian submarine is lost and sinks in the Baltic Sea, Lavrov promises to continue to sell weapons to Syria and Iraq, and Putin confers on the budget of Ministry of Health.
Putin thinks about the ultimatum. Another indirect evidence of this process - changes of his puppet Zaharchenko, who unexpectedly announced on October 18 that DNR has entered a "phase" of peace with Ukraine and on 19 October that the city of Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhya region - is "ancestral lands" of DNR and he will return them by force, simultaneously also taking Mariupol.
Tomorrow, on 21st of October Putin has a test on gas. Will Putin go quietly and receive from the United States and the EU guarantees similar to those that received Yanukovych in February of this year, or continue the war?
TL:DR from me: Putin got an ultimatum to leave the power or lose everything he has in the western countries. Russian opposition leaders got this news leaked and prepare for the presidential elections.
submitted by Kuklachev to UkrainianConflict

Mystery of Milan and why did Navalny and Khodorkovsky become "Crimea's ours" advocates. Long read by Ukrainian analysts.

Original article by Сергей Климовский. It's a long read, but has interesting ideas.
What do we know about the outcome of negotiations in Milan? From their participants - nothing. They did not even hold a regular press conference with streamlined statements that they have agreed to improve the situation. Conclusion - the talks were not just "difficult" as they were named by Klimkin (UA FM) but stiff, I imagine - an ultimatum. But one does not announce an ultimatum out of gentlemanly considerations.
In my opinion, the United States that were absent in Milan presented Putin an ultimatum: either he "corrected himself" or it will be very "painful". Ultimatum was presented through Merkel - Putin knows little English, but is fluent in German, and that's the reason why he was at the table with headphones - everyone spoke English. Putin promised to think about it. But he was not given the right to refuse - United States took the first step, imposing an obligation on Putin to accept an ultimatum: in the evening of October 17 the fall in oil prices stopped, and even grew up a couple of dollars. They demanded in return: a) release Savchenko and Sentsov; b) negotiate with Ukraine on the supply of gas on October 21. These are the first steps that Putin should do on the way to a global normalization and a return to the status-quo. The final step in their chain it for Putin to depart from power within a year. For example, due to the state of health, as Yeltsin did in December 31, 1999. Or else...
Putin knows what else. Therefore he demonstrates negotiability. On October 12 he declares the termination of "exercises" near the borders of Ukraine and the return of 17.5 thousand military to the barracks. NATO is watching this from space, does not see the withdrawal of the troops, and makes the remark to Putin. October 15, Putin signed a law on the financing of political parties from the state budget of Russia, with effect from 01.01.2015. On the same day in the Kremlin at a meeting of the Council for Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights under the President of the Russian Federation Putin says - "Kramatorsk - is Ukraine, and no Newrussia". To prepare for this phrase Putin is told that allegedly Kramatorsk officials denied its residents in pensions and child allowances, saying Kramatorsk is not Ukraine. The source of this kind of complaint to Putin is some unknown Elizabeth Glinkina from Ukraine. Fake that allows Putin to show he has no ill intentions for Ukraine.
On the same day, October 15, Secretary of State Kerry made a strange statement that there is a secret agreement between Poroshenko and Putin, in addition to the Minsk agreement. About what - Kerry did not say. I will not try to guess why and to whom this statement was addressed. On the same day, the day before the meeting in Milan "Ekho Moskvy" radio puts up an interview with Navalny (Russian opposition leader), sitting on house arrest, in which he declares that the Crimea can not be returned. It's kind of like "Gazprom-owned-Media" was opposed to this interview, but it appeared anyway. On October 16 Khodorkovsky makes similar entry in his blog, after which it gets to the media.
This was not expected from both of them. The first assession - Navalny and Khodorkovsky are preparing for the presidential elections, but they are only in 2018. Too early to flirt with "vatniki" and spoil their own image abroad and among their own supporters. Hence the conclusion Navalny got passed a message: in Milan Putin will receive a "claim" he will not be able to get away from. Act now.
Only people from Kremlin could give this information to Navalny, the project of one of the "towers" of which he is. Whether Khodorkovsky received it from the White House or Kremlin, or figured it out by himself, it does not matter. But both have received a signal - Putin is "getting removed". Unexpected "Crimea's ours" sentiment of both of them is purely mercantile - Crimea should not just be returned, but also reparations must be paid for its occupation, just as Germany was paying it to the USSR in 1953. Ukraine in June its size was estimated around 1 trillion UAH. As the presidential candidates Navalny and Khodorkovsky start bargaining not pay this reparation, even more so, they might receive the separate bill for the Donbass. They both do not want to pay the bills of Putin.
What kind of ultimatum was presented in Milan by the United States through Merkel - we do not know. But a little analysis and we get a response: total confiscation of assets and accounts of Russian companies and officials in the West with their villas, as well as total "exposure" of the agents and the Russian security services. Agents may not even be put in jail, but just sent home in only suits. Ant that is much worse than pass the time watching television in a comfortable Dutch prison. Longtime KGB plan on mastering the West from the inside, which took 20 years, fails. This is a "nuclear" hit, including in the professional pride of Putin. Strike without any rockets, any declaration of war and any armies crossing borders.
The first signs that the mechanism of the ultimatum is launched - a statement by Tim Osborne, a Yukos investors lawyer with the German magazine Der Spiegel, reprinted on October 20 by Deutsche Welle, demanding the confiscation of the property of the Russian Federation in the European Union and the United States to compensate for the loss of Yukos company. The next day, after Milan in the media there is information about the Russian submarine off the coast of Sweden, "spying" at the excercises of the Swedish and Dutch fleets. Swedish Foreign Minister is very careful in their comments until October 20. But the Swedish newspapers "come off" in full, receiving information from the military. They report: a nuclear submarine "Dmitry Donskoy", equipped with missile complex "Bulava" with hypersonic nuclear warheads (funny version, given the size of the submarine of this class it makes it impossible to use in the Baltic Sea - a comment of "Hvylya"). Kremlin denies this and suggests that it is not Russian but Dutch submarine.
After Milan Putin disappears for almost 3 days, like Stalin, after June 22, 1941. Russian President's website is not updated on October 18 and 19, and on Monday morning. Only by 1 pm a very short summary comes up: Putin confers with the Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova. Russian submarine is lost and sinks in the Baltic Sea, Lavrov promises to continue to sell weapons to Syria and Iraq, and Putin confers on the budget of Ministry of Health.
Putin thinks about the ultimatum. Another indirect evidence of this process - changes of his puppet Zaharchenko, who unexpectedly announced on October 18 that DNR has entered a "phase" of peace with Ukraine and on 19 October that the city of Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhya region - is "ancestral lands" of DNR and he will return them by force, simultaneously also taking Mariupol.
Tomorrow, on 21st of October Putin has a test on gas. Will Putin go quietly and receive from the United States and the EU guarantees similar to those that received Yanukovych in February of this year, or continue the war?
TL:DR from me: Putin got an ultimatum to leave the power or lose everything he has in the western countries. Russian opposition leaders got this news leaked and prepare for the presidential elections.
submitted by Kuklachev to europe

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